www.monbiot.com<\/a>.<\/p>\nRough Transcript<\/strong><\/p>\nSonali<\/strong>: George Monbiot joins me on the line this morning. Welcome to Uprising, George.<\/p>\nGeorge Monbiot<\/strong>: Thank you very much, Sonali.<\/p>\nSonali<\/strong>: Thanks so much for joining us. So, let\u2019s jump right to the heart of the issue here, an issue that you addressed in one of your latest columns for the Guardian newspaper, which is that even the most drastic cuts being recommended at the table in Bali are not realistic, not based on current science and just not going to be good enough to save the planet.<\/p>\nMonbiot<\/strong>: Well, that\u2019s right. If you look at the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, it shows that if we\u2019re going to avoid 2 degrees Celsius, that\u2019s 3.6 degrees Farenheit of warming, above pre-industrial levels \u2013 and that\u2019s really the critical cutoff point; we have to avoid that level of warming \u2013 then we need a global cut of 85% of carbon emissions by 2050. Now, a global cut of 85% means that in the rich nations, the cut has to be a lot higher if it\u2019s going to be distributed equally, if everybody\u2019s going to produce the same amount of carbon dioxide and that means that in countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States, we\u2019re talking about the high 90s. My calculation suggests 98.3% in the U.S. corresponds to an 85% cut worldwide. So, we\u2019re really talking pretty well a complete de-carbonization of the global economy if we\u2019re to have a high chance of preventing 2 degrees centigrade of warming.<\/p>\nSonali<\/strong>: Now, why is it that even the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is looking at science that seems to be out of date in reaching these numbers that they\u2019re putting forward?<\/p>\nMonbiot<\/strong>: Yes, one of the really frightening things that we\u2019re discovering about climate change is that the events are overtaking the science and as quickly as people can research the events, the events move on. And, so for example at the moment, we have a rate of growth in carbon emissions which outstrips even the IPCC\u2019s worst case scenario. So, when the panel says we\u2019ve got this very high case where there would be a great deal of emissions \u2013 and we call that the A1F1 case \u2013 we\u2019re actually finding that right now, it\u2019s worse than that. But we\u2019re also seeing that there are various effects which the panel hasn\u2019t yet taken into account – it intends to do so in the future – but they greatly accelerate climate change and they\u2019re called the feedbacks. And a positive feedback is a process accelerating itself and there are several of these which take place as far as climate change is concerned. For example, when the oceans get warmer, less carbon dioxide can be absorbed in the water. It\u2019s just like a bottle of Coca-Cola \u2013 as you warm it up, the carbon dioxide outgasses because it\u2019s a simple physical property of water that it can hold less gas when it warms up and, of course, as that takes place, that carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere, it makes the oceans even warmer and so less carbon dioxide is absorbed by them and thus the process goes on. Now, these feedbacks that the IPCC admits have not yet been taken into account when it\u2019s calculating the necessary cut. Taken into account, the cut could be even worse.<\/p>\nSonali<\/strong>: Now, it seems when you listen to these numbers and you look back at the Kyoto Protocol and its call for cuts for about 5% below 1990 levels in the next 5 years, these numbers sound ludicrous now.<\/p>\nMonbiot<\/strong>: It\u2019s a complete joke, to be honest. And, not only are the numbers completely out of scale by more than an order of magnitude with the necessary cut, but not even that cut is being achieved! Not even the 5% is being achieved. The Kyoto Protocol has failed. And, I hate to say this but it\u2019s failed because of, primarily, of the position taken by the U.S. delegation during the negotiations in 1997. And, I hate to say this even more but that delegation was led by Al Gore. And what Gore negotiated was the institutional failure of the Kyoto Protocol. And he undermined it primarily by creating some different standards for different nations. He was talking about the U.S. making a cut against what it would otherwise have produced rather than a cut from the carbon levels which were already taking place which is a whole different ballgame. And he also said there\u2019s got to be emissions trading – we\u2019ve got to be able to buy cuts from other nations and that\u2019s been incredibly destructive to the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol.<\/p>\nSonali<\/strong>: And, ironically today, Al Gore accepts the Nobel Peace Prize along with the IPCC. So, he is also, of course, in Bali right now and taking a what seems to be a different position. Is he actually backing the science that you quote or are his numbers too an underestimate?<\/p>\nMonbiot<\/strong>: They\u2019re still too low but there\u2019s no question that Al Gore, in common with almost every other leader, makes an awful lot better job of governance when he\u2019s out of office. Just like Clinton, just like Tony Blair on this other side of the Atlantic – they say all the right things when they can no longer influence the outcome. And, I\u2019m sorry if I sound cynical, you know. I don\u2019t mean to pour cold water on his prize and all the rest of it. I think he\u2019s done some great stuff since he\u2019s been out of office but I also want people to remember what happened when he was in office and he sunk the Kyoto Protocol.<\/p>\nSonali<\/strong>: Now, George, what do you think about the discussions between finance ministers over the weekend to have an exchange of green technology and a trade in green goods; that developing nations are calling on rich nations to share the technology that they say they require in order to cut carbon emissions?<\/p>\nMonbiot<\/strong>: Well, fine, but I\u2019ve had a horrible revelation over the past few days and it\u2019s something which has gradually been building up in my consciousness and it suddenly hit home as I researched the figures, which is that while there are plenty of schemes for sharing technologies and for introducing alternative technologies and, indeed, for encouraging consumers to reduce their demand for fossil fuels and all the rest of it, as far as I can discover, nowhere on earth, in no nation is there a scheme for reducing the supply of fossil fuels. You can say what you like about demand but if you\u2019re still digging the stuff out of the ground – the coal and the oil and the gas \u2013 it\u2019s going to get burned! There\u2019s no other reason it\u2019s taken out of the ground. They don\u2019t get it out of the ground as a hobby. It\u2019s going to get burned!<\/p>\nSonali<\/strong>: Now, aren\u2019t we to assume that the supply will simply follow the demand?<\/p>\nMonbiot<\/strong>: Well, the demand will follow the supply if the supply is there, because we will use what energy is available to us\u2026<\/p>\nSonali<\/strong>: \u2026because it\u2019s easier\u2026.<\/p>\nMonbiot<\/strong>: But, unless you have a plan for reducing supply, your plans for reducing demands are a complete waste of time. They\u2019re just not going to materialize.<\/p>\nSonali<\/strong>: Now, what about the assertion by the United States and, in fact, most nations that global warming reduction has to be somehow consistent with the economies of the nations? This is the main U.S, line, that the reason they won\u2019t accept these cuts is that it would impact the economy of the U.S.<\/p>\nMonbiot<\/strong>: Let\u2019s look at the big picture here. At current rates of growth, roughly 3% of the global level, the size of the economy doubles every 23 years. It\u2019s an exponential function and this means that in the 92 years between now and the end of the century, it increases by 16 times the level of economic activity. Now, a very interesting series of equations published recently on this side of the Atlantic show that – prove that – that level of economic activity effectively equates into resource use. And, that a doubling in the level of activity doubles the amount of resources that human beings have ever used. What that means is that in 23 years, the next 23 years between now and 2030, we will use as many economic resources as humanity has used since it first stood on two legs \u2013 over 3 million years or so. And this is simply unsustainable! We cannot sustain that rate of growth. Even 3% is way beyond the levels of sustainability. By the end of the century, we will have used 16 times the resources that humanity has used since it first stood on two legs. There are not 16 times that level of resources on earth. They do not exist. So, far from allowing the rates of economic growth to dominate our policy on climate change, our policy on climate change should dominate rates of economic growth.<\/p>\nSonali<\/strong>: I want to remind our listeners \u2013 I\u2019m speaking with George Monbiot. He is a columnist for the Guardian newspaper and his latest book is Heat: How to Stop the Planet from Burning. We\u2019re talking about the conference in Bali, the climate change conference that is commencing as we speak. Now, what about the United States saying that it would come up with its own plan to cut global warming gasses by mid-2008? Any ideas on what that might look like?<\/p>\nMonbiot<\/strong>: Yes, I have a pretty good idea of what it would look like. It will be entirely voluntary. It would probably have to do with carbon intensity of the economy. This is the formula that George Bush keeps using which is saying we will reduce the amount of carbon dioxide produced per unit of economic productivity rather than reduce it in absolute terms, which is what we need to do, and it will be completely useless. The only way we\u2019re going to crack this problem is through international agreement and everybody setting the same standards for themselves. So, in other words, a binding international agreement.<\/p>\nSonali<\/strong>: So, what about the actions taking place around the world? Saturday was declared a global day of action on climate change and there were rallies and demonstrations in cities around the world. Do you feel that that sort of protest is increasing in intensity fast enough? <\/p>\nMonbiot<\/strong>: No, not fast enough. And, by itself, it doesn\u2019t go far enough. A group of us preceded that protest on Wednesday when we went down to a large open-cast coal mine which is being built here in Wales, in South Wales. And, we occupied that mine and we sat on the excavating equipment and we stopped it from operating for the day. And that\u2019s what I want to see a lot more of. This is the only way in which we\u2019re really going to register our protest is to get in front of the mining equipment and to stop this fossil fuel from being extracted. Unless we do so, we are doomed to runaway climate change. We cannot prevent it without stopping that fossil fuel from coming out of the ground. Some of us are now prepared to risk arrest and imprisonment in order to do that. It\u2019s got to that level of desperation and a group of us decided that we\u2019re going to keep doing this until we can no longer do it, in other words, probably until we\u2019re all in prison.<\/p>\nSonali<\/strong>: And, is this an organized group or is it just a group of individuals?<\/p>\nMonbiot<\/strong>: No, it\u2019s self-organized. In this case, we simply put out a call \u2013 this is where we\u2019re going to be, this is what we\u2019re going to do, here\u2019s the date \u2013 and anyone can set up their own group amongst people they trust and come down and join us. And, it worked very well and that\u2019s what we want to see a lot more of.<\/p>\nSonali<\/strong>: Now, interestingly enough, here in the United States, there were demonstrations but they were not very widely reported. It was not something that, you know, necessarily distracted most Americans from their holiday shopping but based on what you and most other people paying attention to the environment say, it\u2019s really here in the United States that there needs to be the most action.<\/p>\nMonbiot<\/strong>: Yes, it really is. And the U.S. sets the pace for everybody else. It\u2019s also the case that the United States is the place where things happen. When you want something to happen, and when the government in the U.S. is prepared to allow it to happen, it can happen very, very quickly there because you remain the technological and the economic powerhouse. You remain the place where things can switch. We saw this most clearly when the United States entered the 2nd World War. After the bombing of Pearl Harbor, there was this extraordinary economic and technological transformation which took place not within decades, not within years, not within months, within days! It was quite phenomenal! Now, this is what won the war for the allied cause. It was the turnaround in the United States. And, we saw for example, a largely civilian economy switched over to a military economy within 90 days. The whole process really took place within 90 days. General Motors, which never looked at a piece of military technology before then, suddenly became a military technology company. It turned out a fighter bomber within 90 days of having been given the instructions to do so. So, it designed, it prototyped, it tested and then it was working at full commercial operation turning out fighter bombers. Now, that was in 1942. This was in the days before just in time production and modular delivery and all the rest of it. This was in the days when industry and manufacturing was quite primitive compared to today. We could turn the whole global economy around within a month if we wanted to now. All that is lacking is the political will.<\/p>\nSonali<\/strong>: Finally, George, in this final week of the Bali Climate Conference, if most nations who are attending, minus, of course, the U.S. and perhaps Canada and Japan, if they do turn out a document that has more drastic cuts than the Kyoto Protocol, even if it is not going to save the planet, I\u2019m assuming you\u2019ll think that it\u2019s a step in the right direction? Are you hopeful, at least, that the people are coming together at such a large scale to discuss this issue on an international level?<\/p>\nMonbiot<\/strong>: Well, I suppose it\u2019s what Gramsci says: it\u2019s the pessimism of the intellect and the optimism of the will. I keep hoping but I\u2019m not hearing the right signals coming from governments at the moment and I\u2019m hearing an awful lot of \u201cgreenwash\u201d, an awful lot of discussion aimed at assuaging public opinion, but very little aimed at actually dealing with the problem, and by greenwash, I mean environmental whitewash. That\u2019s a term used to denote an impression of action without creating any action and so far that\u2019s all we have seen from these negotiations and it needs to go a heck of a lot further and faster than that.<\/p>\nSonali<\/strong>: Well, George Monbiot, as always, I want to thank you very much for joining us today. <\/p>\nMonbiot<\/strong>: Thanks. That\u2019s my pleasure.<\/p>\nSpecial thanks to Julie Svendsen for transcribing this interview.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"| the entire program GUEST: George Monbiot, columnist for the Guardian newspaper and author of Heat: How to Stop the Planet from Burning About ten thousand delegates from more than 180 nations are meeting in Bali to attempt to extend the Kyoto Protocol Global Warming Pact beyond 2012. 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<\/a>GUEST: George Monbiot, columnist for the Guardian newspaper and author of Heat: How to Stop the Planet from Burning<\/em><\/p>\n