Feb 11 2008
Independents Could Swing Presidential Election
| the entire program
GUEST: Jim Mangia, Chair of IndependentVoice.Org, the nation’s largest organization of independent voters
Illinois Senator Barack Obama won three victories in the primary elections in Washington, Louisiana and Nebraska over the weekend. This puts him in currently in the lead on the number of delegates compared to Senator Hillary Clinton. Much of Obama’s success has been attributed to independent voters – he won almost every “open” primary election on Super Tuesday, where independents were allowed to pick a Democratic nominee. The Washington Post ran an editorial last Friday about independent voters and their role in this year’s presidential race. The “Disaffected Voters Who’ll Decide 2008,” according to the Post, are “a crucially important new bloc of voters who are clamoring for bold, nonpartisan solutions and are disgusted with today’s Washington politics.” In fact, a new Gallup poll found that only 24% of Americans are satisfied with the direction of the country, with both President Bush and the Democrat-controlled Congress at record-low levels of popular approval. Thirty two percent of all voters consider themselves independent, loyal to neither of the two major parties.
For more information, visit www.independentvoice.org.
Rough Transcript:
Sonali Kolhatkar: My guest is Jim Mangia. He is the Chair of IndependentVoice.Org, which is the nation’s largest organization of independent voters. Welcome to Uprising, Jim.
Jim Mangia: Thank you. Thanks for having me.
Sonali Kolhatkar: Thanks so much for joining us today. So let’s talk about the fact that Americans are clearly more and more disaffected from the two-party status quo. Are independents those who are dissatisfied with all of the parties, are they people who support perhaps a third party, or are they basically people who support no parties?
Jim Mangia: I think it’s basically people who support no party and are disaffected from the two major parties. I think what we have learned over the last few years is that independents disdain the political party system, and the corruption that it breeds. So what we are doing is building an independent organization of voters who are concerned about the issues of corruption, political reform, and are moving forward on an independent organization that is not a political party.
Sonali Kolhatkar: Is there a way to characterize the sort of political leanings of independents, or are they pretty diverse?
Jim Mangia: I think that the one thing that unifies independents is issues of political reform and political corruption. I think independent views are pretty diverse on social issues, but I do think you see a coming together of independents on some critical issues facing our nation. So, for example, the overwhelming majority of independents oppose the war in Iraq. The overwhelming majority of independents support a national health care system. So I think, you know, we are talking an independent movement that is increasingly moving more progressive.
Sonali Kolhatkar: Now, let’s talk about how independents voted in the primary elections that we have seen so far. Of course a number of them on Super Tuesday, we just had three more over the weekend and of course many more coming up. You say that independents clearly support Barack Obama. Why is that?
Jim Mangia: Well, I think Barack Obama is talking about change, talking about changing the climate of politics in Washington, talking about ethics and lobbying reform, and all those political reform issues that are of great concern to independent voters. And consequently, independents broke for Obama by more than 2 to 1.
Sonali Kolhatkar: Now is that in just the Super Tuesday elections or are there sort of polls that have shown this is where independents are leaning?
Jim Mangia: There are polls that are showing that, it’s also been happening since Iowa. Independents broke overwhelmingly for Obama in Iowa, in New Hampshire, in South Carolina. All the open primary states, basically, where independents can vote in the Democratic primary, Obama has swept.
Sonali Kolhatkar: Let’s talk about some of the other possible candidates, although the field has narrowed among Democrats and Republicans, it’s possible that some new candidates may emerge, who are running independently, among them Ron Paul, who of course is currently running on a Republican ticket, but is rumored to be possibly running as an independent or maybe announcing that. Mike Bloomberg, the New York City mayor, who hasn’t really talked about it, but certainly there is a small movement that is pushing him. And then of course there is Ralph Nader, who has set up an exploratory committee, but may or may not run as the Green Party candidate, possibly an independent. What about the prospects of these three men, and they are all men, among independent voters?
Jim Mangia: I think it depends on how the primaries turn out. I think if Barack Obama is the nominee, I think any one of those men who are thinking about an independent run, are going to have a hard time organizing independents to support them, because clearly, independent voters have made a major investment in Barack Obama through the open primaries. But if Hillary is the nominee, I think there may be more of a window for an independent candidate, since many independents are very disaffected with Hillary Clinton. You also have the McCain factor, however, and John McCain attracts independents as well. So if John McCain is the nominee of the Republican Party, and Barack Obama is the nominee of the Democratic Party, I think you are going to see those two battling for independent votes, rather than having one of the independent candidates actually be able to garner those votes.
Sonali Kolhatkar: Jim, has the percentage of those Americans who identify as independent gone up since the 2004 elections?
Jim Mangia: It has almost doubled since 2004.
Sonali Kolhatkar: Really? Doubled?
Jim Mangia: Now, 42% of Americans self-identify as independent.
Sonali Kolhatkar: Now I saw a poll last year that claimed 32%. Where is this 42% coming from?
Jim Mangia: Wall Street Journal. So, you know, it’s definitely on the rise, and continuing to grow.
Sonali Kolhatkar: Now, if 42% of the electorate is independent and they do unite behind one candidate, it’s possible that this country could see a major undermining of the two-party system, if they do unite behind an independent candidate.
Jim Mangia: Yes, and of course that would assume that independents could unite around anything other than issues of political reform. And I think in some ways the strength of the independent movement is that we agree on issues of political reform, but we, you know, hold a diversity of opinions on a host of other issues. So I think getting one bona fide independent candidate is difficult. I think the fact that Barack Obama’s campaign specifically, and other campaigns as well, have reached out to independents, bodes well for the independent movement going forward.
Sonali Kolhatkar: And speaking of Barack Obama, you also said McCain does attract independent voters, but let’s talk about Hillary Clinton. Has she sort of missed the boat on independent voters?
Jim Mangia: I think she has. I think, you know, she is part of the same Washington culture which independent voters disdain. I think that her campaign has not reached out directly to independent voters. I think she has pretty much based her campaign on going to the party faithful within the Democratic Party, particularly the older and more working class base of the Democratic Party, the union base, the special interest base. And I think that that has not bode well for her attraction to independent voters. Barack Obama, not only has his campaign reached out directly to the independent voters, but he has mentioned independents as part of his coalition on the televised debates, his work on behalf of ethics and lobbying reform is a key part of his television commercials, so I think he has really made a play, and successfully so for independent voters.
Sonali Kolhatkar: What about the issue of healthcare? It’s sort of, you know, people are split on Hillary Clinton versus Barack Obama on the issue of healthcare. Both of them have a plan, some people favor Clinton’s and others think that Obama, although he may not have spelled out as many details, can take people in a better direction. What do you think of that particular issue?
Jim Mangia: Well, I think most Americans are concerned about the issue of healthcare, and the overwhelming majority of Americans support universal healthcare. I think both candidates are trying to address that issue. I think many people are concerned about the mandates in Hillary Clinton’s plan, which obviously come more from a Republican perspective of mandating that people buy health insurance, even if they can’t afford it, and putting the onus on individuals and the responsibility on individuals to have health insurance. I think the spirit of the American people, and certainly my sense after talking to independent voters is that we want a universal healthcare system that covers everybody, but also that doesn’t force people who can’t afford to buy health insurance to be beholden to the health insurance industry. And I think that is a very important issue for many Americans.
Sonali Kolhatkar: Can you talk about this whole system of primary elections and how many of the Democratic primary elections have been open to independent voters, or declined-to-state voters perhaps would be a more accurate term to use, and how that has really boosted Barack Obama? And had that not been the case, had the primaries been closed, perhaps Hillary Clinton would be the clear Democratic nominee, which may give an edge to John McCain in the actual presidential election.
Jim Mangia: I think that’s the case. I think if Barack Obama is not the nominee of the Democratic Party, and John McCain is the nominee of the Republican Party, then independents will probably break for John McCain. What we have seen in the open primary states, where independents had the option of either voting Democrat or Republican, two thirds broke for the Democrats and voted for Barack Obama, and the rest voted for John McCain, about a third. So, I think that what we are seeing is that independents are breaking for the Democrats this year.
Sonali Kolhatkar: Now, let’s also talk about the fact that many people who may have stated their party affiliation as Democrat or Republican might be increasingly becoming independent in their approach to electoral politics. Do you think that’s a trend that is increasing?
Jim Mangia: Yes, I think it is. I think many, many Democrats and Republicans consider themselves independent-minded, and in those states with closed primaries, many independents will register in one of the major parties so they can participate in the primary contests, but they are generally independent voters.
Sonali Kolhatkar: Finally, let’s talk about where this movement, if you will, is headed. Your organization, IndependentVoice.Org, is the largest organization of independents in the nation. But how many independents do you represent? You mentioned that there are a few things that unite independents, but is this a group that can get organized, if you will?
Jim Mangia: I think it can. I mean we are successfully organizing independent voters. We represent close to 200,000 members at this point, and growing, and that’s just been in the last few months that that membership has grown so substantially. I think that independents want a voice in the political process. And IndependentVoice and other organizations representing independent voters are beginning to give that voice to independents, independents are getting organized, and they are being courted directly by major party candidates. So I think that all bodes well going forward, and I look forward to a very vigorous election season in November, when independents will literally make the decision as to who is elected as our next president.
Sonali Kolhatkar: Well, Jim Mangia, I want to thank you very much for joining us today.
Jim Mangia: Thanks so much for having me.
Special Thanks to Claudia Greyeyes for transcribing the interview
One Response to “Independents Could Swing Presidential Election”
Great show, great interview. I really got a sense of the power of the independent voter.