May 29 2013
HuffPost: Excel Spreadsheet Error, Ha Ha! Lessons From the Reinhart-Rogoff Controversy
At this point everyone who follows economic policy debates knows about the famous Reinhart-Rogoff spreadsheet error uncovered by a University of Massachusetts graduate student. When the error is corrected, there is nothing resembling the growth falloff cliff associated with a 90 percent debt-to-GDP ratio that had been the main takeaway from the initial paper.
There has been an interesting response from the mainstream of the profession. On the one hand, they have been quick to rebuke those on their political left for making a big deal out of a silly mistake (here, here and here). They have also assured everyone that it really doesn’t matter anyhow since no one actually used the Reinhart-Rogoff work as a basis for policy. Both points raise interesting issues.
Of course the fact that two well-known Harvard economics professors made a silly spreadsheet error should not be a big deal. However the beauty of a spreadsheet error is that it is something that everyone can understand.
We all know what it means to enter the wrong number or add the wrong columns. That doesn’t require advanced training in economics.
The silly spreadsheet error was important in the debt debate controversy because it allowed for a real debate. Ordinarily Harvard economists don’t engage their less credentialed colleagues at places like the University of Massachusetts. (Hey, they never even responded to my emails requesting their data.)
Unfortunately, even the best reporters at the most prestigious news outlets rarely feel sufficiently knowledgeable to challenge pronouncements from prominent economists. This means that the profession must rely on internal policing to weed out bad arguments. The Reinhart-Rogoff 90 percent cliff was widely accepted policy wisdom for more than three years, which suggests the internal policing in the economics profession is pretty damn weak.
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